Contango
In contango, deferred futures trade above spot, reflecting interest cost minus lease rate. This is the normal gold curve shape and tells you little beyond rate carry.
Precious metals intelligence
Backwardation and Contango in Gold
Gold futures curves usually sit in contango. Backwardation is rare and signals something specific about physical demand and lease rates.
Backwardation
When deferred futures trade below spot, the curve is backwardated. In gold, this often signals acute physical demand or stress in the lease market.
Why it matters
Persistent backwardation has historically preceded gold rallies because it reflects scarcity of immediately available physical metal. Brief backwardation is noise; durable backwardation is information.
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