The case for
Discovery rates have fallen sharply. Average ore grades have declined for decades. Capital intensity per ounce keeps rising.
Each is a structurally bearish signal for mined supply.
Precious metals intelligence
Peak Gold Debate
The peak-gold thesis argues mined supply has plateaued and will gradually decline. The data is more nuanced than the headline.
The case against
Higher gold prices reactivate marginal projects. Heap-leach technology has expanded economic deposits. Recycled supply provides elastic backstop.
Peak gold has been called wrongly multiple times.
What it means for price
Even if mined supply plateaus, recycling and above-ground stocks dampen short-term price impact. Peak gold is a multi-decade tailwind, not a near-term catalyst.
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