Early phase
Liquidity stress at recession onset can pressure gold as leveraged holders sell to raise cash. 2008 and March 2020 both showed initial gold drawdowns despite the broader narrative.
Precious metals intelligence
How Gold Behaves During Recessions
Gold does not move uniformly through recessions. Early-cycle deleveraging, mid-cycle policy response, and post-crisis reflation each produce different gold reactions.
Policy response
Once central banks cut rates and expand balance sheets, real yields drop and gold typically firms. The strongest gold moves often come during the policy-response phase, not the initial shock.
Recovery
Post-recession reflation can extend gold strength when inflation expectations rise faster than nominal yields. The gold/silver ratio often peaks during the stress phase and falls during recovery.
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